It has been about a week in this trade and it seems to have set up for another move. Now is the time to set some stops in case it blows out the top. The emergency safe stop of $1.4583 can be lowered down a tad to just over the recent peak. $1.4525 should provide an adequate cushion.
Price action has been dancing all around the entry point, a little below then rally hard off of it. The entry level seems to be pretty good support so far. The question is; is price staying up because of options expiration week, or is it being held down because of it? Of course there is still another option, and that is simply that no correlation exists.
A break below $1.4380 should confirm the top is in and set in motion a large degree decline, which will have positions added along the way. On the other hand, a break above $1.4530 will confirm a rally to at least $1.4650, or even a whopping $1.4900.
Even if it blows over the top no long position is likely to be initiated as I believe the EUR/USD is to close to a top. This matches with my view that the USD (/dx) is near a rallying point. What’s the saying? “The market can be irrational far longer than you can remain solvent”. Oh so true. Not to be dire, just being realistic, but have to be prepared to cut it loose and move on in case my view is wrong.