Is it time to short the EUR/USD?

The EUR/USD pair is fast approaching what could be a trend change of significant proportion. Check out the Monthly EUR/USD Chart. As can be seen, price has almost reached the upper trend line. What doesn’t show on the long-term chart is that I have this as wave “b” up in “E” down. Whether this is “D” finishing or “b” finishing doesn’t make much difference as the outcome is the same – Down.

For a closer look, the 4hr Chart shows what I’m thinking. That’s the pre-entry chart with a few notes. An up to date chart is here, which shows that now may be a great entry point, better than mine, in fact. And this one shows the fib relations of the legs up. Note that I’m projecting the 50% and 61.8% targets as entries. If this shoots to 100% then I’m quite a bit off the mark and that is a distinct possibility. A much safer entry plan would be to enter on a lower line break and use the peak as a stop point.

A change in E/U trend would be tied to a U.S. Dollar trend change and that also appears to be near. USD 4hr chart can be seen here.

Given these relations and a logical nearby stop point, a short entry looks to be a good risk.

Thumb (Click to enlarge):EUR/USD chart
http://www.tafool.com/Charts/eurusd0318114ha.gif

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