S&P500 4-hour chart. On this chart price looks to clearly be rising from a corrective pattern — I believe a fourth wave a-b-c. If that is indeed the case, this is the last push upwards. “i” and “ii” of a final fifth appear to be complete and “iii” is currently underway and extending. (i) and (ii) of “iii” are complete and (iii) of “iii” is currently in progress.
There are two other options as I see it:
1- A truncated fifth is in progress which will soon end. If that is the case a drop below 1240 is really the only verification. A truncated fifth is the last of my options and I give that a very low probability.
2- Price is carving out I of V. If this is the case, a small rise to about 1322, or at a maximum 1336, to complete I then a decline for II. The decline should NOT go below 1240 and should target closer to 1290/1300. Once there, waves III, IV and V will complete the upward move. A target area can be set once III and IV have completed.
The only way to tell the difference between options 1 & 2 will be if the decline breaks 1240 area. In any event, whichever course the market may take, all roads seem to be pointing to a top. The next question begs, “What kind of top”? Whether it is a major top or will just lead to a minor correction is yet to be seen. Once price begins its decent a better assessment can be made. I suspect a major top. Time will tell.